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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.