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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."