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Back in 2018, a mere eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in key constituencies above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift in Position & Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was declaring the EU question had been settled by the 2019 general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge commitments that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, the cap which was tightly sealed for five years is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the scale of the damage, reportedly has resulted in an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal negotiated with the EU last summer offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing Home Office resistance to an expansive version designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is viewed by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this makes America an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe would destabilise geopolitics further by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation & The Ghost of 2018

All of which brings us back to the conference of 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to keep open the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open himself, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.